This game feels fairly similar to a game USF played a couple of weeks ago against Notre Dame. Notre Dame had just come off a nice win against Duke but really didn’t show as much on offense as you’d like to see for a top tier team. I think Cinci is in the same boat this week with ironically the same opponent. I was very impressed at how well Cinci played against Army last week defensively, but really unimpressed at their offensive effort. This feels similar in a way that we expect that sort of defensive effort to really give USF a difficult time like Notre Dame did, but also expect Cincinnati to figure some things out on offense. With trying to make a good impression and hopefully a New Year’s Six bowl it just doesn’t seem like a game Cinci is taking their foot off the gas. We’ve got Cinci winning by 31 so we really find a good bit of value at 21. There are several shops out there at 21 but if you can’t get it at your place then I wouldn’t sweat paying -120. I honestly don’t think you need it on games like this but I would definitely wager larger at the better numer of -21. I can’t imagine this line dropping below that so 21 is likely as good as it gets!
Cincinnati -21 (-110) – 2 % Bankroll Wager