If we’re being 100% transparent here guys I don’t love this play but out of principle I’m adding it. The main thing that doesn’t sit well with me is the absolute chaos that has been the Big 12. There’s a possibility after this week the two favorites to be in the conference championship both have two losses before the halfway mark of the season! But since our models have the game closer to a coin flip we’ll take the points before it gets to 7. There is injury concerns for Kansas State’s QB but we’re more of a contrarian bettor when it comes to college QB’s being out when the backup has time to get snaps and practice the week prior. I don’t think the line goes over 10 in the event Thompson can’t go, but I do think it’s a possibility it drops to 7 if he is playing, so with that I’d rather get a good number at 8.5 and let the chips fall where they may. Like I said, the Big 12 has been chaos thus far so lower confidence in this one compared to the mathematical cover probability listing north of 70%.
Kansas State +8.5 (-110) – 1.5 % Bankroll Wager